Political Risk

We have downgraded our short-term political risk ratings in light of the current opacity surrounding potential changes to the Libyan cabinet system. The possibility of major upheaval... 2008-05-15

Recent comments from Algeria's energy minister suggest little chance of a compromise on the cut in gas subsidies demanded by the WTO in exchange for membership. With inflation rising... 2008-05-12

The assessment by a UN mediator that Western Saharan independence is unrealistic lends weight to Morocco's position in ongoing negotiations, although a final accord still looks some... 2008-04-25

The elimination of US$4.5bn of Soviet-era debt and the signing of numerous economic agreements presages a strengthening of ties between Libya and Russia. While Qadhafi is still committed... 2008-04-22

A recent spat with Russia over arms sales reveals Algeria's growing assertiveness on the international scene. Although we do not anticipate any long lasting damage to Russian relations,... 2008-04-07

Government approval of a bill that allows for greater parliamentary oversight is a step in the right direction, although it remains to be seen how quickly it will be implemented and... 2008-03-31

Plans to overhaul Libya's system of government by abolishing most of its ministries have created confusion and could lead to a major downward revision of our political risk ratings.

A constitutional amendment allowing President Bouteflika to run for a third term is expected by the end of the year. This bodes well for political stability in the short term, although... 2008-02-08

While the Tunisian media appears to be challenging the absolute control exerted by the state, we do not expect any major improvements in media or political freedoms in the short to... 2008-02-08

Our core view remains that terrorist activity poses a muted threat to political stability in North Africa as a whole. However, the rising frequency of attacks in Algeria has prompted... 2008-01-08