Economy

Production has plummeted since 2000 and most major sectors are now barely functioning and decapitalised. BMI View: A political settlement is the fundamental prerequisite for economic... 2004-05-10

Several recent surveys provide new evidence of the spread of HIV/AIDS. BMI View: The huge social cost of the disease threatens to overwhelm the healthcare system and could endanger... 2004-05-10

Some, albeit insufficient, progress is being made in improving the transparency of oil sector accounts. BMI View: Because of deeply entrenched vested interests, which go all the way... 2004-05-10

External economic factors are making life difficult for the economic authorities. BMI View: The rest of 2004 will be tricky because of currency movements and high world oil prices.... 2004-05-10

The consensus view of growth has fallen to 2.6% in 2004 (from a forecast of 2.9% when taken last quarter). BMI View: The decline appears to be attributable to continued problems for... 2004-05-10

BMI View: Expansionary fiscal policy, strong car sales and continued strong (though possibly weakening) credit growth underpins our assumption that domestic demand will continue to... 2004-04-27

We see little point in changing our forecast numbers on a monthly basis. Inflation is trending slightly down, but the official figures are highly suspicious. The recent IMF report... 2004-04-27

The government is attempting to regain suspended donor support by slashing its budget deficit. BMI View: Fiscal discipline in Zambia is historically weak, meaning that targets are... 2004-04-13

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is charged with maintaining CPIX (consumer price index minus mortgage bond repayments) inflation within a band of 3-6% y-o-y on an ongoing basis.... 2004-04-08

The government is making some payments to the IMF, but its arrears to the fund and the World Bank have escalated to frightening levels. BMI View: The multilateral financing agencies... 2004-04-07