Political Risk

BMI View: The Hariri tribunal will prove an anticlimax, in our view, with little incentive for the UN to pursue high level Syrian government figures just as the country begins to... 2009-02-27

Israel's fragmented political landscape is once again making for protracted coalition negotiations. Netanyahu has clinched the leadership but must now shape myriad opposing views... 2009-02-26

The appointment of the pro-reformist and pro-business Bassem al-Salem to finance minister (from his previous position as labour minister) is a strong signal that despite the current... 2009-02-25

Egypt is reportedly refusing to allow an Iranian arms shipment to pass through the Suez Canal to reach the Mediterranean. The US Navy has apparently told the Pentagon that it recently... 2009-01-27

BMI View: The fact that Hizbullah did not intervene in Gaza, and even toned down its rhetoric as the conflict wore on, suggests that the group is feeling distinctly less empowered... 2009-01-26

BMI View: If the Israeli government managed to remove Hamas from power, this would reduce the threat from the Gaza Strip. However, there is also an outside risk that this conflict,... 2009-01-13

We do not anticipate a swift resolution to hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The chances of a ground assault are increasing, suggesting a protracted Israeli military operation.... 2008-12-29

Trying economic conditions will pose downside risks to political stability and political reform is likely to be stalled in the short to medium term.

BMI View: Even if the Hariri tribunal goes ahead on schedule, we do not expect it to yield any particularly significant results. We continue to expect the pro-Syrian opposition to... 2008-12-11

We continue to see the possibility of another military confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah, with rhetoric between the two parties intensifying and a new intelligence report... 2008-11-27