Political Risk

Political transformation will remain hard to come by in Libya. In practical terms, little has changed so far and despite Qadhafi's rhetoric, we believe that many within the ruling... 2008-11-06

Our core scenario is for an easy victory for incumbent President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the 2009 presidential poll. Unemployment and ongoing terrorist activity both pose downside... 2008-11-04

While the forthcoming local elections are unlikely to produce a seismic shift in the political landscape, the performance of Morocco's newest political party will be watched with... 2008-10-29

Foreign ministers from the Maghreb region will meet with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, currently taking place in... 2008-09-25

Human rights groups have welcomed last week's decision by a Moroccan appeal court to dismiss the jail sentence and fine imposed on a blogger deemed to have insulted King Mohammed... 2008-09-22

Unemployment will remain a concern, and a risk to Tunisia's otherwise strong political risk profile. Rising participation in higher education is creating job expectations that the... 2008-08-29

We reiterate our view that the threat of a return to large-scale insurgency in Algeria is low. However, the recent step-up in terrorist attacks poses clear threats to the business... 2008-08-27

In a surprise move, Seif al-Islam Qadhafi has announced his withdrawal from Libyan political life. Islam, the son of leader Muammar Qadhafi, holds no official title but has been a... 2008-08-21

Despite a change of leadership, we do not expect any major shift in policy direction from Morocco's main Islamist party, the PJD. Most importantly, the party remains committed to... 2008-07-24

The International Criminal Court (ICC)'s indictment of Sudan's president for alleged war crimes offers Libya an opportunity to wield its regional influence. Despite its rapprochement... 2008-07-23