Political Risk

BMI View: It is good news that a power-sharing deal has been reached in Madagascar, but we remain cautious. Many important questions are unanswered as yet, and a resurgence of instability... 2009-08-12

BMI View: We expect the political crisis talks in Madagascar to continue for some time to come. In the meantime, there are pertinent risks to short-term stability, although we remain... 2009-06-12

BMI View: A delay to the forthcoming presidential election - originally scheduled for September 2009 - is looking increasingly likely. In the run-up to the polls, President Eduardo... 2009-06-12

BMI View: Given the extent of political instability in Madagascar, we see scope for elections taking place earlier than scheduled (October 2010). In the interim, civil unrest is... 2009-04-29

While failing to regain its two-thirds majority in parliament, the African National Congress (ANC) managed to defend its clear lead in the elections. We believe the party will face... 2009-04-27

BMI View: We expect President Bingu wa Mutharika to win the May 19 presidential elections, owing to incumbency advantages. However, key risk to our outlook stems from main opposition... 2009-03-26

The Batswana government has been vocal in its condemnation of Robert Mugabe's rule and his manipulation of the political process in neighbouring Zimbabwe. In contrast, its view on... 2009-03-24

BMI View: In the aftermath of the attempted coup and the president's resignation, we highlight two possible scenarios for the coming months. In the first, Rajoelina retains power... 2009-03-17

While the African National Congress (ANC) is likely to win the next South African parliamentary elections on April 22, the party is at risk of losing its two-thirds majority in parliament... 2009-03-12

Dissent within Robert Mugabe's power base is growing, as he is finding it increasingly difficult to protect supporters from the accelerating human and economic crisis. A political... 2008-12-31