Lebanon

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Despite being overshadowed by events elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Lebanon's political crisis remains among our most paramount concerns at the moment. With the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL possibly set to issue indictments in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri as early as March, with most indications pointing to the involvement of Shi'a group Hizbullah, the threat of violent sectarian conflict is mounting. Any deterioration in Lebanon's political risk profile could have implications for broader regional stability, particularly should it alter Israel's perceptions of its own internal security.