Economy / Egypt
If you would like to subscribe to Middle East Monitor, East Med and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.
If you would like to take a trial to Middle East Monitor, East Med please click on the trial link below.
Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt
March 2004 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
If you would like to subscribe to Middle East Monitor, East Med and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.
If you would like to take a trial to Middle East Monitor, East Med please click on the trial link below.
Due to better-than-expected exports, we have upwardly revised our real GDP growth forecast for FY04 to 2.9% (from 2.6%). With the labour force booming on the back of a youthful population, however, higher growth is required to reduce unemployment. Exports will continue to perform well over the forecast period, despite the expected decline in petroleum prices, as the competitive position is boosted by the low pound, and the outlook for tourism is good. A downside risk is posed by the possibility of militant attacks, but previous experience suggests the tourist sector is remarkably resilient. While the current account is in surplus, the capital account is weak, and the shortage of investment poses a risk to sustainable growth.