Economy / Egypt
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Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt
February 2005 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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Our 2005 growth forecast has risen to 4.4%, based on the assumption that the government implements planned reforms - especially the large tax cuts that have been announced - and does not backslide on the recent currency flotation. Conversely, if reforms falter, growth will be lower, confidence will fall, the pound will weaken and capital outflows will continue. If the government does not rein in the fiscal deficit, interest rates could be higher than we have forecast, which would pose a further downside risk to growth.