Economy / Saudi Arabia
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Macroeconomic Forecast Saudi Arabia
August 2006 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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Record-high oil prices will lead to a record current account surplus of US$101bn, or 28% of GDP, in 2006. A very strong trade balance, together with a much smaller income surplus, will continue to outweigh the services and current transfers deficits. Based on our oil price assumptions, and on estimated output of 10.95 mn b/d, we expect total oil export revenue to reach US$181bn in 2006. For the sixth year in a row, oil will make up more than 90% of the Kingdom's total revenue of US$195bn. At the same time, we expect another 12 months of robust growth in import demand, which has risen sharply since 2003.