Economy / Libya
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Macroeconomic Forecast Libya
October 2006 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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We expect real GDP growth of 5.5% in 2006, underpinned by high oil revenues and government spending. Higher capital spending and growth in the energy sector, particularly in terms of natural gas which looks set to expand by an average of around 12% annually, will provide a boost to real GDP. Both the current account and fiscal balance will stay firmly in positive territory over the forecast period, despite a decline in world oil prices as we expect. We anticipate the OPEC basket average to fetch US$54.5/bbl in 2007, down from our 2006 forecast of US$61.5/bbl, which looks more or less spot on.