Political Risk / Iraq
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The Clock Ticks As Violence Disperses
May 2007 | Political Risk AnalysisSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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Iraq's travails are set to intensify over the forecast period, with a proliferation of conflicts between sectarian, ethnic and tribal groups - all pursuing divergent goals as they bid for control of resources. The forecast period will see further fragmentation of the Iraqi political system. Shi'a unity is fracturing, with the parliamentary Shi'a bloc reduced to cooperating on an issue-by-issue basis. The ability of violent insurgent elements to melt away and regroup in different parts of Iraq will present a growing security threat. Islamic militants associated with Al-Qaeda are already relocating to alternative regional centres like Kirkuk and Mosul, which